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Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Same event, all outcomes

Lamine YamalUpdated 58 minutes ago98.4% Harry KaneUpdated 58 minutes ago97.9% Kylian MbappéUpdated 58 minutes ago92.5% Lionel MessiUpdated 58 minutes ago65.5% RodriUpdated 58 minutes ago55.5% Michael OliseUpdated 58 minutes ago41.5% Khvicha KvaratskheliaUpdated 58 minutes ago35.5% Ousmane DembéléUpdated 58 minutes ago22.5% Fabian RuizUpdated 58 minutes ago11.5% Jude BellinghamUpdated 58 minutes ago10.3% Erling HaalandUpdated 58 minutes ago9.5% Declan RiceUpdated 58 minutes ago5.5% Achraf HakimiUpdated 58 minutes ago4.0% Pau CubarsiUpdated 58 minutes ago3.9% VitinhaUpdated 58 minutes ago3.9% Luis DiazUpdated 58 minutes ago2.8% Vinícius JúniorUpdated 58 minutes ago1.8% Lautaro MartinezUpdated 58 minutes ago1.2% Bukayo SakaUpdated 4 weeks ago0.5% Bruno FernandesUpdated 58 minutes ago0.5% RaphinhaUpdated 4 weeks ago0.5% PedriUpdated 4 weeks ago0.4% Cole PalmerUpdated 4 weeks ago0.4% Enzo FernandezUpdated 4 weeks ago0.3% Dominik SzoboszlaiUpdated 4 weeks ago0.3% Federico ValverdeUpdated 4 weeks ago0.2% RodrygoUpdated 4 weeks ago0.2% Mohamed SalahUpdated 4 weeks ago0.2% Desire DoueUpdated 4 weeks ago0.1% Julian AlvarezUpdated 4 weeks ago0.1% Cristiano RonaldoUpdated 4 weeks ago0.1%

Price history

Recorded probability
Recorded market probability from Oct 8, 22:00 to Oct 9, 06:00 0%25%50%75%100% Oct 8, 22:00Oct 9, 06:00

Up to 400 most recent snapshots in this period. Lines connect recorded points; prices between them may have moved.

View recorded values 5 snapshots
Recorded atProbability
Oct 9, 06:00 UTC92.5%
Oct 9, 04:00 UTC92.5%
Oct 9, 03:00 UTC92.5%
Oct 9, 01:00 UTC92.5%
Oct 8, 22:00 UTC92.5%

What settles this market?

Resolution rules supplied by Polymarket. A price near 100% is not confirmation that an outcome has been settled.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kylian Mbappé officially finishes in the top 5 (positions 1 through 5) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon d'Or announcement (https://www.ballondor.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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