Skip to content
Ball Quiz
Quick round

Will Vinícius Júnior finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Open market

Same event, all outcomes

Lamine YamalUpdated 1 hour ago98.4% Harry KaneUpdated 1 hour ago97.9% Kylian MbappéUpdated 1 hour ago92.5% Lionel MessiUpdated 1 hour ago65.5% RodriUpdated 1 hour ago55.5% Michael OliseUpdated 1 hour ago41.5% Khvicha KvaratskheliaUpdated 1 hour ago35.5% Ousmane DembéléUpdated 1 hour ago22.5% Fabian RuizUpdated 1 hour ago11.5% Jude BellinghamUpdated 1 hour ago10.3% Erling HaalandUpdated 1 hour ago9.5% Declan RiceUpdated 1 hour ago5.5% Achraf HakimiUpdated 1 hour ago4.0% Pau CubarsiUpdated 1 hour ago3.9% VitinhaUpdated 1 hour ago3.9% Luis DiazUpdated 1 hour ago2.8% Vinícius JúniorUpdated 1 hour ago1.8% Lautaro MartinezUpdated 1 hour ago1.2% Bukayo SakaUpdated 4 weeks ago0.5% Bruno FernandesUpdated 1 hour ago0.5% RaphinhaUpdated 4 weeks ago0.5% PedriUpdated 4 weeks ago0.4% Cole PalmerUpdated 4 weeks ago0.4% Enzo FernandezUpdated 4 weeks ago0.3% Dominik SzoboszlaiUpdated 4 weeks ago0.3% Federico ValverdeUpdated 4 weeks ago0.2% RodrygoUpdated 4 weeks ago0.2% Mohamed SalahUpdated 4 weeks ago0.2% Desire DoueUpdated 4 weeks ago0.1% Julian AlvarezUpdated 4 weeks ago0.1% Cristiano RonaldoUpdated 4 weeks ago0.1%

Price history

Recorded probability
Recorded market probability from Oct 8, 22:00 to Oct 9, 06:00 0%25%50%75%100% Oct 8, 22:00Oct 9, 06:00

Up to 400 most recent snapshots in this period. Lines connect recorded points; prices between them may have moved.

View recorded values 5 snapshots
Recorded atProbability
Oct 9, 06:00 UTC1.8%
Oct 9, 04:00 UTC1.8%
Oct 9, 03:00 UTC0.3%
Oct 9, 01:00 UTC0.3%
Oct 8, 22:00 UTC0.3%

What settles this market?

Resolution rules supplied by Polymarket. A price near 100% is not confirmation that an outcome has been settled.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vinícius Júnior officially finishes in the top 5 (positions 1 through 5) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon d'Or announcement (https://www.ballondor.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

More football markets

All markets