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Will Lautaro Martinez finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Same event, all outcomes

Lamine YamalUpdated 9 hours ago99.5% Harry KaneUpdated 9 hours ago99.5% Kylian MbappéUpdated 9 hours ago99.2% RodriUpdated 9 hours ago97.1% Lionel MessiUpdated 9 hours ago96.8% Khvicha KvaratskheliaUpdated 9 hours ago90.0% Michael OliseUpdated 9 hours ago87.5% Ousmane DembéléUpdated 9 hours ago83.0% Erling HaalandUpdated 9 hours ago68.5% Jude BellinghamUpdated 9 hours ago55.0% Fabian RuizUpdated 9 hours ago41.5% Pau CubarsiUpdated 9 hours ago33.5% Declan RiceUpdated 9 hours ago27.5% Achraf HakimiUpdated 9 hours ago11.0% Bruno FernandesUpdated 9 hours ago8.3% VitinhaUpdated 9 hours ago7.5% Nuno MendesUpdated 9 hours ago7.0% Marc CucurellaUpdated 9 hours ago5.1% Luis DiazUpdated 9 hours ago4.5% William SalibaUpdated 9 hours ago4.5% João NevesUpdated 9 hours ago4.1% Gabriel MagalhãesUpdated 9 hours ago2.8% Willian PachoUpdated 9 hours ago2.8% Julián QuiñonesUpdated 9 hours ago2.6% Sadio ManéUpdated 9 hours ago2.5% Dayot UpamecanoUpdated 9 hours ago2.5% Vinícius JúniorUpdated 9 hours ago2.5% Ferran TorresUpdated 9 hours ago2.4% MarquinhosUpdated 9 hours ago2.1% Lautaro MartinezUpdated 9 hours ago2.0%

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Recorded probability

One snapshot recorded. A trend needs at least two observations.

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Recorded atProbability
Oct 8, 22:00 UTC2.0%

What settles this market?

Resolution rules supplied by Polymarket. A price near 100% is not confirmation that an outcome has been settled.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 10 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If more than 10 players tie for the top 10 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's official top 10 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final ten places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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