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Will Lautaro Martinez finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Same event, all outcomes

Lamine YamalUpdated 58 minutes ago96.5% Harry KaneUpdated 58 minutes ago96.1% Kylian MbappéUpdated 58 minutes ago72.0% Lionel MessiUpdated 58 minutes ago33.5% RodriUpdated 58 minutes ago14.5% Khvicha KvaratskheliaUpdated 58 minutes ago6.6% Michael OliseUpdated 58 minutes ago6.6% Fabian RuizUpdated 58 minutes ago6.3% Ousmane DembéléUpdated 58 minutes ago5.5% Erling HaalandUpdated 58 minutes ago2.8% Pau CubarsiUpdated 58 minutes ago1.8% Jude BellinghamUpdated 58 minutes ago1.8% Achraf HakimiUpdated 58 minutes ago1.2% Vinícius JúniorUpdated 58 minutes ago1.1% VitinhaUpdated 58 minutes ago1.0% Lautaro MartinezUpdated 58 minutes ago1.0% Declan RiceUpdated 58 minutes ago0.9% Luis DiazUpdated 58 minutes ago0.9% Bruno FernandesUpdated 58 minutes ago0.6% Enzo FernandezUpdated 4 weeks ago0.1% RodrygoUpdated 4 weeks ago0.1% Cristiano RonaldoUpdated 4 weeks ago0.1% Dominik SzoboszlaiUpdated 4 weeks ago0.1% Bukayo SakaUpdated 4 weeks ago0.1% RaphinhaUpdated 4 weeks ago0.1% Desire DoueUpdated 4 weeks ago0.1% Julian AlvarezUpdated 4 weeks ago0.1% Federico ValverdeUpdated 4 weeks ago0.1% Cole PalmerUpdated 4 weeks ago0.1% PedriUpdated 4 weeks ago0.1% Mohamed SalahUpdated 4 weeks ago0.1%

Price history

Recorded probability
Recorded market probability from Oct 8, 22:00 to Oct 9, 06:00 0%25%50%75%100% Oct 8, 22:00Oct 9, 06:00

Up to 400 most recent snapshots in this period. Lines connect recorded points; prices between them may have moved.

View recorded values 6 snapshots
Recorded atProbability
Oct 9, 06:00 UTC1.0%
Oct 9, 04:00 UTC1.0%
Oct 9, 02:00 UTC1.1%
Oct 9, 00:00 UTC1.1%
Oct 8, 23:00 UTC0.3%
Oct 8, 22:00 UTC1.0%

What settles this market?

Resolution rules supplied by Polymarket. A price near 100% is not confirmation that an outcome has been settled.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lautaro Martinez officially finishes in the top 3 (positions 1 through 3) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon d'Or announcement (https://www.ballondor.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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